Croatia vs Portugal 18/11/2024

Watch here: https://flysporthd.com/live-sport/croatia-vs-portugal-202411181930

Time & Venue

  • Time: 19:45 GMT, November 18
  • Venue: Poljud Stadium

Form

Closing Group A of League A in the 2024/25 UEFA Nations League, Croatia hosts Portugal in a decisive encounter.

Portugal has already secured the top spot and a quarterfinal berth, while the hosts need at least a draw to guarantee their knockout stage position.

At 39 years old, Cristiano Ronaldo continues to make history, scoring two of Portugal’s five goals in their dominant 5-1 win against Poland, including a stunning bicycle kick.

In their last 10 matches, Croatia has 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with a 40% win rate, 50% Asian Handicap win rate, and 70% over 2.5 goals rate.

No male player has more wins in international football than Ronaldo (132), who surpassed Sergio Ramos’ record of 131 on November 15. In the same match, Rafael Leão, Bruno Fernandes, and Pedro Neto also scored before Dominik Marczuk netted Poland’s consolation goal, ending Portugal’s clean sheet.

Coach Roberto Martinez and his team seem unbothered by conceding goals, having dominated Group A with ease to secure an early quarterfinal spot.

Excluding a draw against bottom-placed Scotland, Portugal has won every match in this season’s Nations League. In their last 10 away fixtures in the competition, they have lost only once, against Switzerland in June 2022. Since June, Portugal has not conceded more than one goal in any official or friendly match.

In their last 10 matches, Portugal has 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with a 60% win rate, 50% Asian Handicap win rate, and 60% over 2.5 goals rate.

Croatia defeated Portugal 2-1 in a summer friendly but lost by the same scoreline in the reverse Nations League fixture in September—a match where Ronaldo marked his 900th career goal.

After a positive start in September and October, Zlatko Dalić’s team has struggled. They missed the chance to secure second place after a 0-1 defeat to Scotland at Hampden Park, with John McGinn scoring the decisive goal in the 85th minute.

Currently, Croatia holds a 3-point lead over Scotland and Poland. With a head-to-head advantage over Poland, Croatia is safe from relegation and only needs a point in Split to confirm their spot in the knockout stage.

In their last eight encounters, Croatia has 1 win, 2 draws, and 5 losses against Portugal, with a 13% win rate, 25% Asian Handicap win rate, and 57% over 2.5 goals rate.

The worst-case scenario for Croatia might not materialize if Poland fails to beat Scotland or if the two draw in their match. However, Croatia’s poor head-to-head record against Portugal—losing 7 of their last 9 encounters—means the hosts must remain cautious. Meanwhile, Portugal is unlikely to go all out, having already secured qualification.

Squad Updates

With first place secured, coach Roberto Martinez has allowed key stars like Cristiano Ronaldo, Bernardo Silva, Pedro Neto, and Bruno Fernandes (suspended) to return to their clubs early. This is good news for Manchester United, Manchester City, and Chelsea, as their players receive valuable rest.

To compensate for these absences, Martinez has called up Fabio Silva and Sporting Lisbon’s promising fullback Geovany Quenda from the U21 squad. Tiago Djalo, who missed the match against Poland, may also feature.

Martinez could give opportunities to players like João Félix, João Cancelo, and Vitinha. For the goalkeeper position, Rui Silva and José Sá will compete to replace Diogo Costa.

For Croatia, playmaker Petar Sucic is suspended, just like Fernandes for Portugal. Mario Pašalić or Nikola Vlašić could step in for him.

On the brighter side, striker Ante Budimir and first-choice goalkeeper Dominik Livaković return from suspension. Livaković will likely reclaim his spot from Dominik Kotarski, while Budimir may start on the bench behind Andrej Kramarić, who has been effective up front.

In defense, Zlatko Dalić might be forced to make a change, as Kristijan Jakić picked up an injury late against Scotland. Marin Pongračić could temporarily fill in at right-back.

Predicted Lineups

Croatia: Livaković; Pongračić, Gvardiol, Šutalo, Barišić; Modrić, Brozović, Kovačić; Vlašić, Kramarić, Perišić.
Portugal: Sá; Cancelo, Inácio, Pepe, Mendes; Neves, Vitinha, Otávio; Félix, Leão, Silva.

Statistics

  • Portugal has a near-77% win rate against Croatia.
  • Portugal has drawn just once in their last 5 matches.
  • Croatia has won 2 of their last 5 matches.

Goal & Conceding Rates

Scoring and conceding rates for the last 30 matches.
Scoring and conceding rates for the last 50 matches.

Prediction

With coach Martinez allowing several key stars to return to their clubs and Portugal having no further objectives in the group stage, a somewhat relaxed approach from the visitors is expected.

In this context, despite their inconsistent form, Croatia should be capable of securing at least a draw—a result sufficient to join Selecao in the Nations League quarterfinals.

Predicted Score: Croatia 1-1 Portugal (per Sportsmole).

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