Data experts work out exact number of points needed to progress from new Champions League league phase and progress to last-16

Data experts have calculated how many points are required to progress to the last 16 of the UEFA Champions League.

The new-look competition began on Tuesday with Premier League sides Aston Villa and Liverpool having already kicked off their European campaigns with victories. Manchester City and Arsenal are in action on Wednesday.

Just 24 teams of the 36 involved will progress to the next round, meaning points on the board are now more pivotal than ever.

A Swiss-style format was introduced by UEFA for the 2024/25 campaign in the hope that fans will more often than not get to see Europe’s biggest sides go toe-to-toe.

According to Opta statistician Nils Mackay, just 10 points is enough to give any side a 99% chance of progression from the league phase.

16 points is enough to hand teams a 98% chance of skipping the play-off round and head straight into the last-16.

Four Premier League teams qualified for the competition this season, with Aston Villa and Liverpool already registering their first points of the competition.

Unai Emery’s side beat Swiss side Young Boys 3-0 away from home, with goals from Youri Tielemans, Jacob Ramsey and Amadou Onana ensuring a first Champions League win for Villa.

Arne Slot’s men beat AC Milan 3-1 with Ibrahima Konate, Virgil van Dijk and Dominik Szoboszlai all netting.

Liverpool are of course no strangers to Europe having won the competition six times in their illustrious history.

Getty)

Elsewhere on Wednesday, it’s the turn of Manchester City as they host reigning Serie A champions Inter Milan.

Pep Guardiola’s side won the competition back in 2023 and will be hoping to topple Real Madrid to reclaim their crown.

Arsenal make up England’s final involvement and the Gunners begin their journey with a trip to face Atalanta on Thursday night.

Mikel Arteta has spoken confidently of his side’s chances, insisting no game is to be taken lightly.

“Every game is going to be crucial,” Arteta said back in July.

“You want to finish as high as possible, and in order to do that you have to win every game.

“You can play against any opposition at any ground. That’s great and it gives you a great chance to see very early in the season, where you are, what your level is and how much you have progressed through the competition.

“Obviously, that’s going to be elevated to a different level.”